India taking up Russia's offer of discounted crude oil would not be a violation of American sanctions, the White House has said. "Our message to any country continues to be that abide by the sanctions that we have put in place and recommended," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters at her daily news conference on Tuesday. Asked about a report on the possibility that India could take up the Russian offer of discounted crude oil, Psaki said, "I don't believe this would be violating that (sanctions)."
The point to note for India is that we must not panic. The United States may be our largest export destination, but high tariffs will not exactly mean gloom and doom. Sure, we can throw some morsels as we continue negotiating, but we must be firm that some red lines cannot be crossed, no matter what, asserts Shreekant Sambrani.
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
State governments have requested the Centre for export incentives, lifting of import duty in the case of cotton for the textile sector and GST exemptions.
India's crude oil imports from Russia fell for a second straight month in January to its lowest in 12 months but the nation's insatiable appetite for Russian crude remains for the long term, according to data from energy cargo tracker and industry officials. Russia supplied 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to India in January, down from 1.32 million barrels in December and 1.62 million barrels in November 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia however continues to remain India's top oil supplier, accounting for a little less than a quarter of 4.91 million barrels a day of oil that the world's third largest energy consumer imported in January.
Brave statements such as we will continue to be the fastest growing large country are of no consolation, because the direction of trade also determines the flow of investment, points out M Govinda Rao.
'As one former Indian diplomat put it to me, Delhi has access to the White House, but Islamabad has access to Mar-a-Lago.'
India and the US have collaborated through the past one month on launching a powerful satellite; are commencing joint production of GE Aerospace's F414 jet engines in India; India is participating in a massive three week-long military exercise in the Western Pacific, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'If the INDIA bloc ever forms the government, they will be more than tempted to use such provisions to bring about regime change in BJP-ruled states.'
Trump couldn't care less anymore about the Israeli demand for Iran's 'de-nuclearisation' and 'de-militarisation.' Trump pins hopes on a grand bargain with Iran as a partner in America First, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that countries like India, if it gets the exemption, would be asked to bring down their oil imports from Iran to zero in six months' time.
US sanctions against Iran kick in from November 4, which will block payment routes. Sources said India and Iran are discussing reverting to rupee trade after November 4.
The unexpected missile attack on a second India-bound ship carrying Russian crude, just three weeks after the first, has complicated matters for domestic refiners. India now counts the Vladimir Putin-led nation as its biggest oil supplier, according to Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler, and these attacks come on top of US sanctions since December, where vessels that bring crude to India are facing heightened scrutiny. Panama-registered Pollux, which loaded crude at the Sheshkaris oil terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk on January 24, was scheduled to deliver the medium, sour Urals grade to Paradip port on February 28.
Chinese import tariffs have unwittingly come to India's assistance to help boost imports of US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at rates cheaper than what it pays for supplies from West Asia, according to industry sources and shipping data.
US shale oil would act as an alternative to India's heavy dependency on Russian crude, which is currently facing sanctions.
By threatening to punish India with high tariff, Trump is actually planting a tantalising thought in the Indian mind that the Modi government should suitably 'incentivise' him, explains Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India was the world's biggest importer of Russian oil in February, exceeding China by 20 million barrels.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
OVL, IOC and OIL explored for oil and gas in Farsi block.
"We have the toughest sanctions ever imposed. But on oil, we want to go a little bit slow because I don't want to drive the oil prices in the world up," Trump told reporters.
Crude oil prices are expected to rise this year as Iranian oil sanctions will lead to a drop in oil supply.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
'All but one of the previous oil shocks brought either a change of government or a political crisis.' 'Is the government braced for stormy weather?' asks T N Ninan.
'If you align your ambition with India's rise, the peak of your careers will unfold alongside the peak of India's power.'
Ongoing strategic investment into assets abroad, alongside gas purchases being made by India, will soon allow the country to access as much gas as it needs, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on the sidelines of India Energy Week (IEW 2025).
The United States is in conversation with these 12 countries on ways and means to avoid the American sanctions against them.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
'Trump is good news for us. Energy poverty is real, and fossil fuels are the answer.'
Investors lost Rs 24.69 lakh crore in market valuation in the last four days of severe drubbing in the equity market. Spike in global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a strong US jobs data diminishing early rate cut expectations, and the rupee logging its steepest single-day fall in nearly two years dampened investors' sentiment.
United States President Donald Trump has warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to end the 'ridiculous war' in Ukraine or face high tariffs and further sanctions.
'It concerns the sea and the security of the nation. What has happened is a big tragedy.'
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
China on Wednesday reacted sharply to the United States move to exclude it along with India from the list of countries exempted from sanctions for importing crude oil from Iran, saying it is opposed to any unilateral action without United Nations authorisation.
The sanctions have a singular purpose, denying the world's largest state sponsor of terrorists the capacity to do things like they did this past couple weeks, attempted assassination campaign in the heart of Europe, said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
'I am not an aspiration-oriented politician.' 'This is the time to redefine politics.' 'Politics of power is not real politics.'
At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
An inconclusive end to this war will pose high risk for Netanyahu of a cascading demand for a regime change in Israel, predicts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Acutely conscious that he's left with less than four years to create his legacy, Trump is undoubtedly a man in a hurry, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
